# Lucyd

> Lucyd is an onchain prediction markets exchange for short-term Bitcoin price moves. Every market asks one question: will BTC/USD be higher at the end of the round than at the start? Rounds last 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours or 1 day, and a new round opens as soon as the previous one ends. Winning tokens pay 1 USDC, losing ones pay nothing. Markets settle automatically on the Pyth BTC/USD price. Lucyd currently runs on the Ethereum Sepolia testnet with test USDC.

Key facts:

- Central limit order book with onchain settlement: fills are settled by the Exchange contract, outcome tokens are ERC-1155 (Gnosis-style ConditionalTokens).
- Settlement uses the first Pyth BTC/USD price at the round's end time; with no price in the window the market is voided and both sides get their money back.
- No trading fees on testnet. Trading itself needs no gas; the exchange settles fills on chain.
- Open REST API, public order book WebSocket and an MCP server, so bots and AI agents can trade.
- Partner program pays partners a share of the volume of traders they bring, in USDC, through an onchain contract.
- Builder program pays bots, terminals, apps and wallets 0.5% to 1% of the taker volume they route to the order book (builder code in the order salt), daily in USDC, at no cost to their users.

## Learn

Every article is also available as plain markdown: add `.md` to its URL, e.g. https://lucyd.trade/learn/bitcoin-up-or-down-prediction-markets.md

- [Full documentation in one file](https://lucyd.trade/llms-full.txt): everything below plus the complete API and trading reference, for AI agents
- [FAQ](https://lucyd.trade/faq.md): short answers about markets, settlement, fees, getting started, bots and AI agents

- [Bitcoin Up or Down: how short-term BTC prediction markets work](https://lucyd.trade/learn/bitcoin-up-or-down-prediction-markets.md): rounds, prices as probabilities, order book, settlement, payouts
- [How markets settle on the Pyth oracle](https://lucyd.trade/learn/how-prediction-markets-settle-pyth-oracle.md)
- [Polymarket Bitcoin Up or Down alternative: Lucyd vs Polymarket vs Kalshi](https://lucyd.trade/learn/polymarket-kalshi-bitcoin-up-down-alternative.md)
- [Trade prediction markets from Claude with MCP](https://lucyd.trade/learn/trade-prediction-markets-with-claude-mcp.md)
- [Build a prediction market trading agent with Claude Code and MCP](https://lucyd.trade/learn/claude-prediction-market-trading-agent.md): strategy in plain English, run every round, safety limits
- [How to build a 5-minute Bitcoin Up or Down trading bot](https://lucyd.trade/learn/bitcoin-up-or-down-trading-bot.md): Python, order book stream, fair-value model, signed orders, backtest
- [How to backtest a prediction market strategy on real order book data](https://lucyd.trade/learn/backtest-prediction-market-strategies.md): lucyd-backtest (pip/Rust, open source), L2 book replay with latency, slippage and queue position, validation sample, HTML report
- [Bitcoin Up or Down statistics](https://lucyd.trade/learn/bitcoin-up-or-down-statistics.md): win rates, typical moves and streaks from 8,000+ settled rounds
- [Polymarket 15-minute fees explained](https://lucyd.trade/learn/polymarket-15-minute-crypto-fees.md): taker fee formula of Polymarket and Kalshi, cost at each price, zero-fee alternative
- [Prediction markets vs options and futures for systematic traders](https://lucyd.trade/learn/prediction-markets-vs-futures-options.md): capped loss, option premiums, data costs, equal access, liquidity, with sources
- [Guide](https://lucyd.trade/guide): how to trade on Lucyd step by step

## Markets

- [5-minute Bitcoin Up or Down](https://lucyd.trade/bitcoin-up-or-down/5-minute)
- [15-minute Bitcoin Up or Down](https://lucyd.trade/bitcoin-up-or-down/15-minute)
- [30-minute Bitcoin Up or Down](https://lucyd.trade/bitcoin-up-or-down/30-minute)
- [1-hour Bitcoin Up or Down](https://lucyd.trade/bitcoin-up-or-down/1-hour)
- [4-hour Bitcoin Up or Down](https://lucyd.trade/bitcoin-up-or-down/4-hour)
- [Daily Bitcoin Up or Down](https://lucyd.trade/bitcoin-up-or-down/daily)

## Developers

- [API docs](https://lucyd.trade/api-docs): REST markets, trades, positions and traders; order book WebSocket; order signing (EIP-712)
- [OpenAPI spec](https://api.testnet.lucyd.trade/openapi.yaml): machine-readable API reference, including the CLOB trading guide
- [MCP server](https://lucyd.trade/mcp): connect Claude, Cursor or any MCP client and trade in plain language; install with `npx -y @lucyd/mcp`. Hosted read-only server (market data, no install): https://mcp.lucyd.trade/mcp
- [MCP server source](https://github.com/lucyd-trade/mcp-server)
- [MCP discovery file](https://lucyd.trade/.well-known/mcp.json)
- [Smart contracts](https://github.com/Lucyd-trade/contracts)
- [Order book data](https://lucyd.trade/data): free tick-level L2 order book history of every round as Parquet, no key; files at https://data.testnet.lucyd.trade/books/

## Optional

- [Partner program](https://lucyd.trade/partners)
- [Builder program](https://lucyd.trade/builders)
- [Changelog](https://lucyd.trade/changelog)
- [Contacts](https://lucyd.trade/contacts)